XRP’s Potential Trajectory: An Elliott Wave Perspective
Analyst’s Bearish-Before-Bullish Forecast
CasiTrades, a well-respected crypto market analyst, has pinpointed that XRP appears to be concluding its corrective structure, offering both caution and optimism. CasiTrades’ analysis, based on the Elliott Wave principle, suggests XRP rejected the Wave 4 resistance around $2.68. According to her post on X on October 30, 2025, this rejection indicates renewed downside momentum, setting the stage for a final drop before a substantial rally.
The Elliott Wave theory posits that asset prices move in specific patterns, alternating between impulsive (trend-following) and corrective waves. CasiTrades’ chart suggests XRP is currently tracing its fifth corrective wave, implying the bottom is near.
Key Support Levels and Fibonacci Confluence
The critical question, of course, is where that bottom might be. CasiTrades has identified several crucial support levels to watch, which will be the key to watch for XRP in the coming weeks. These levels, at $2.42, $2.03, and $1.65, represent potential areas where the selling pressure could abate and buyers might step in. A break below $2.42 would confirm the bearish continuation, potentially driving XRP towards the lower targets.
Importantly, these levels align with Fibonacci retracement zones. The 0.618 extension near $1.65, in particular, coincides with the projected termination of Wave 5. This confluence of technical indicators suggests that this area could act as a strong magnet for price action, attracting accumulation once the downward momentum exhausts itself. If the confluence level and Wave 5 prove true, 2026 could be a profitable year for XRP investors.
RSI Divergence as a Reversal Signal
Monitoring the Relative Strength Index
Supporting the short-term bearish outlook, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the four-hour chart is currently making new lows, reflecting increasing selling pressure. As CasiTrades pointed out, this RSI behaviour confirms that Wave 5 is underway. However, she will be closely monitoring the RSI for signs of bullish divergence as the price approaches the final support region. A bullish divergence occurs when the price makes a new low, but the RSI fails to do so, signalling that the selling momentum is weakening and a potential bottom is forming.
This divergence would be a crucial confirmation signal that the corrective phase is indeed ending and that the market is preparing for a reversal. This divergence is especially important given the broader market sentiment, which has been cautiously optimistic but largely range-bound for much of 2025. While the current RSI position near the midline suggests further decline may be in store before a reversal materialises, it is essential to keep a close eye on it.
Implications for XRP Investors in 2025
Timing the Market: When to Buy the Dip?
The analysis suggests that XRP may be poised for a significant move in the coming weeks, and the critical question for investors is how to position themselves to take advantage of it. While attempting to precisely time the bottom is notoriously difficult, monitoring the identified support levels and watching for RSI divergence can provide valuable clues. A successful defense of the $2.42 level, coupled with a bullish RSI divergence, could be an early indication that the corrective phase is ending.
Alternatively, if XRP breaks below $2.42, investors should prepare for a potential move towards the lower targets at $2.03 and $1.65. Accumulating XRP within these zones, especially if accompanied by bullish divergence signals, could be a strategic approach to capitalise on the anticipated reversal. It’s important to consider that market conditions in 2025 are evolving rapidly, with increased institutional adoption and regulatory developments potentially influencing XRP’s price action.
Beyond Technical Analysis: The Broader Context
Of course, technical analysis is just one piece of the puzzle. Investors should also consider the broader context, including Ripple’s ongoing legal battles, the adoption of XRP in cross-border payments, and overall market sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. Ripple continues to push for regulatory clarity, while also continuing to make partnerships. These fundamentals will ultimately play a significant role in determining XRP’s long-term trajectory.
Ultimately, while the immediate outlook for XRP may appear bearish, the possibility of a significant reversal in November is certainly worth keeping an eye on. By monitoring key support levels, watching for RSI divergence, and considering the broader market context, investors can position themselves to potentially benefit from the anticipated rally. Remember to conduct thorough research and seek professional advice before making any investment decisions. The crypto market remains volatile, and any investment carries risk.
